Trump Facilitates Dialogue Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Leaders

Background of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan centers on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and displaced persons. A ceasefire in 1994 left Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian control, but sporadic clashes continued. In September 2020, a six-week war reignited, ending with a Russian-brokered ceasefire that saw Azerbaijan regain significant territory.

The 2020 U.S.-Mediated Summit

In late October 2020, then-U.S. President Donald Trump hosted a trilateral meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House. The summit aimed to reinforce the fragile ceasefire and address humanitarian concerns, including prisoner exchanges and the protection of cultural heritage sites. While Russia had spearheaded the primary ceasefire agreement, the U.S. sought to bolster its diplomatic influence in the South Caucasus, a region of strategic importance due to energy pipelines and geopolitical rivalries.

Key Discussions and Outcomes

• Ceasefire Compliance: All parties reaffirmed commitments to the Russia-mediated agreement, emphasizing the need to avoid further escalation.
• Humanitarian Aid: The U.S. pledged $30 million in aid to support displaced civilians and rebuild critical infrastructure.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Trump emphasized the importance of continued dialogue under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group framework, co-chaired by the U.S., France, and Russia.

Regional and Global Reactions

The summit drew mixed responses. Armenia welcomed U.S. involvement as a counterbalance to Russia’s dominant role, while Azerbaijan reiterated its preference for bilateral negotiations. Russia expressed cautious optimism but reiterated its primary role as a security guarantor in the region. Turkey, a key ally of Azerbaijan, praised the talks but underscored the importance of territorial integrity.

Long-Term Implications

Though the summit did not produce a breakthrough, it highlighted the U.S.’s renewed interest in stabilizing the South Caucasus. Analysts noted that the event underscored the complexity of balancing regional power dynamics, particularly amid U.S.-Russia tensions. The humanitarian commitments, however, provided immediate relief to conflict-affected communities, fostering cautious hope for sustained peace efforts.